Catastrophes or Calamities in the Australian Bush December 2019

Post 3rd January 2020 large areas of coastal NSW south coast and in East Gippsland are still burning.

When the smoke finally clears from the angst of the new millenniums latest worry focus,  it will finally be recognized that a huge part of the reason for out of control fires in public land in the early summer of 19-20 is due to how that land in managed .
The problem was obvious when Canberra was burnt, but nothing effective has been done to make our management of bushfires and forests  better since.
I know because I not only  worked in the bush and farms with fires, government   and studied risk and our approach , but I know HOW and why a more effective system of bush fire containment works.
State government incompetence is well known 
I am not alone in insisting that State Governments have largely no idea of how to manage fire in forest , let alone manage forests themselves ( eg they have a largely no touch policy )  Since many of us quit working for "Greenlabor government idealism' years ago  , competent operators and  public servants has been silenced and the system corrupted.

Bucketing in solutions from on high 

The media and wannabes have no idea that the States have been following policies of public land management that greatly increase the risk of them and their neighbours burning . : 
Better systems of containment, fuel reduction  and public forest management have  been largely abandoned. 
The ascendancy of agencies with "high responsibility" has been escalated ; thereby corrupting the old system of departments based on grounds experience . Yes the talk is always about experience but the commitment of government now is to  experience of those qualified in  the new myth of mastery in management ; The focus of politics in people management experience is one of the most unsound . 
   A single agency to coordinate  is a clear example of this stupidity.  Just another bureaucracy.
 



It won't suit to discuss it in detail now ( 3rd January 2020) because the fire damage and risk is still serious and the battle lines have been hard drawn .


Some of the things that need to be reviewed after the fires 

1. Whether the States have effective containment policies that work , and why not 
2. Why aren't our government not training more people for on ground management. 

--How many men on the ground for every helicopter for example. 

1. Whether we have learnt the lessons of the parks fires which burnt into Canberra over 10 years ago 
2. Why ABC would get itself into a situation where its own programs ( Q and A) insist on " more helicopters " 
3. Whether media are helping by not showing the less acceptable machinery required to provide sensible and safe fire lines ( eg bulldozers in bush)  
4. why up until today no one has encouraged the Prime Minister  to direct monies to ensure States fund fire management staff who focus in effective containment in particular. 
5. Whethet an  elephant in the room is the increasing numbers of people  ( including friends of Russel Crowe) who insist in leaving fuel close to their houses and assets . Previous ( pre millenium ) 50 and 30 meters cleared zones were considered ESSENTIAL around buildings by the CFA . Anything less is still indefensible -even allowing for position and aspect . .
6. Whether Australains can afford to protect the assets of people who chose to take very high risks 
7. Whether popular and political opinion  is one of the most dangerous reasosn fro reducing competencies 

If you want to keep a calm and objective view,  listen to those who study and show ourselves approved.https://20943.mc.tritondigital.com/OMNY_NIGHTSWITHSTEVEPRICE_P/media-session/ceafffe4-2a0a-44af-8292-b301ef96939d/d/clips/88b564ea-a9a6-4751-910a-a5d800019396/a6a367c7-1cf2-4270-ba85-a6d600339454/28ec5162-006b-4cb7-baf2-ab36005a4419/audio/direct/t1577942955/Retired_fire_brigade_Captain_Ralph_Barraclough.mp3?t=1577942955&ttag=omny_clip_id%3A28ec5162-006b-4cb7-baf2-ab36005a4419%2Comny_clip_title%3ARetired%20fire%20brigade%20Captain%20Ralph%20Barraclough%2Comny_program_name%3ANights%20with%20John%20Stanley%2Comny_program_slug%3Anights%2Comny_network_name%3A2GB%2Comny_organization_id%3A88b564ea-a9a6-4751-910a-a5d800019396%2Comny_playback_source%3Apodcast&fbclid=IwAR1c_x1mDy1qFtzWMWdXQgnQQjYRyxCpJHU5rnHUeQnslJ4nTvi__9CRmcQ

January Fire Risks Victoria 2015

This site is NOT meant to be definitive about HOW YOU should respond to BUSHFIRE risk .
This POST is just a brief note WITH CHECKLIST at bottom ( Why necessary ? Because "much advice is best "and because many who work HIGH risk territory ( like the authors)  would not want anyone to be left to the media machine and practices of the government of this day- many of us used to work FOR them when they worked better,
Much advice and much LOCAL advice and phone contact should be sought .

Question Kids ask naturally are we at risk ? ( to MUM or DAD),,,Answer  ,  If you have big native trees or bush nearby-- YES you are and esp if its to the north or west of YOU   see posts below and links

Why this confusion?
Unfortunately with the intense love of the bush, there is a bit of denial . Time to give this up for realism if you live near bush and ...........leave early - if you can . If a bush fire is near or day progressing  you leaving maybe too late . In old days someone would often  come and tell you if it made sense to do so and where to go.
---Maybe ask your CFA friends  to do that because in this days and age of all talk and no responsibility you have few  better guarantees


Should you trust the government?  Well YES BUT sadly NO -----to the extent that trees have become sacred in their eyes , they and their processes TOO are in denial  PLUS they don't really understand and commit to local risk management ( its a local thing YOU have to be in charge of ) use own resources eg phone ; the internet and specific sites can go down as will some communication lines .Find a TWITTER feed that makes sense to you if you use it .( less likely to go down and quick)

CHECKLIST ( not definitive )

1. 
   
2. Wise up and trust your own judgement and those who live with similiar risks nearby  .
3. Carry woollen blankets, overalls ,phone nos ,lots of water and chainsaw ( if you can) in any car you use 
4. Carry LOCAL resource phonenumbers .low use local web and weather links eg http://otwaysonline.blogspot.com
5. If you do go somewhere safe , plan to come back late ( usually less risk) 
6. Expect electricity outages. If need power/ water supply find other sources, store water in smaller containers  
7. Add here ........................

When is it reasonably safe to stay where you are when bushfire front hits?

Difficult to give a definitive, but as a guide ONLY .Get more advice on your local situation and the nature of fuel in your area .Assumming a fire front and wind from the north or west .
1. In a car     when the grass around you is low and no native forest within 30 metres ( preferably more )The higher the timber, the greater the distance needs to be between you and the fuel .If stuck ,stay in the car and cover yourself with a woollen blanket . If you have to get out wear overalls .
2. In a house Much the same as above but houses will be much more susceptible to windows breaking and embers starting fires on the ground or in the roof .If there is no tall easily burnt fuel to the north or west of where you are, its probably reasonably safe but embers could mean you need to go outside to put fires out .
3.On a hill  if at all possible stay on the lee side of hills or landscape features ( east side of road cuttings is generally safer in high wind situations.
4. In a town   Native Trees in particular anywhere near houses can be very dangerous .Embers must be watched should they occur .

When to go and When to stay

NATIVE FOREST TREE  BOUNDARIES  ONLY

I accept that these guidelines may not be the best, or in any way complete ( mainly focused on road use decisions with cars near native tree forest in southern Australia ) but they seem to be better than always talking about "a plan" . Please advise on any needed adjustments.Posted  January 2013 .

This post was made because the car death a few days ago at Seaton illustrates the EXTREMELY HIGH RISK people are taking by living in and staying in a native forest situation.

(Most Australian Native forests are constantly shedding bark and leaves , contain lots of wax and oil and shed these things even more during dry windy periods )

USE ALL SOURCES of information TO MAKE FINAL DECISIONS












STOP  
The only reasonably safe place to be in a car is when the car is at least the distance away from Native forest species as that specified below ( Forest should be at least twice the distance away as it is high ) . In otherwords if the fire is in grassland staying in cars is  reasonable to be considered .Staying in cars is :not normally safe in cars in forest. That is, there is probably no safe space near native forest species forest.


GO
if you haven't got at least 30 metres ( by which I mean should be at least 40metres  - see CFA guidelines which includes an aspect consideration )of cleared ground between you and the fire you probably shouldn't be there. While wind speed and aspect makes a big difference to the degree of risk . No way you should stay if wind speed is even moderate or expected to be so on the day  .If the land slopes to the north or the west away from you the need to go is clearer still _think of open forest as standing kindling .

USE WIND SPEED , ASPECT OF LAND and FUEL AMOUNTS to help make decisions and see earlier posts .Study previous events and note safer places nominated .

Places of last resort

Some people find it so hard to make decisions,  they don't make them .

Those in charge on Feb 09 NOT in charge:

NEWS Emergenecy services not ready - Christine Nixon thinks she can leave the building ! ( Revelation at Royal commission this week). Noone who has ever worked a bushfire would accept it for the person in her position ! SHE'S OUTA THERE WHEN SHE CAN'T LEAVE TILL THOSE AT RISK ARE OUTA THERE .

For another revelation - (yet,  to come we trust) ( A word that should have been in pace for last fire season but wasn't !!) The word Evacuation has been banned-- time the embargo was lifted and those hiding behind their incompetence named ;
This needs to be said juts in case the commission haven't the courage to say so - the word should never ever have been banned and all the other confusing messages should have been .The only place to be when a very high fire risk is on is,    outa there ---and who would supervise that ?

Now 14 months since the greatest natural disaster in Australasia history and Brumbys search for th whole truth and nothing but the nice truth ( errors of judgement ) continues - pity about the bad modeling thats rife in his entourage.
Even The interim recommendations didn't include evacuation as an option and the word appears to have been banned . The emergency services are liable because the only place to be when a very high fire risk is on is outa there . yOU HEARd IT FIRST ON fORESTANDFIRE

The missing Fire Plans

Everybody is talking about fireplans but where are they ? Went looking for some examples on Google Images, but could find few . So here's one I prepared earlier for a worksite in the bush . Send me an email if you want to know more , or do you own HERE