Northern, Southern , Eastern ; Know what slopes you are on

Know what slopes you are on -every person living in rural Victoria should know just where they are ; because the winds and land are predictable features to plan with .see here

Bark an up the wrong tree

How did so many people lose their lives on Feb 7th? Clearly the warnings about the danger were totally inadequate !
If you are going to be effective in warning people, you have to aim very clearly at the real and current high risk factors. Miss the target even slightly , and you lose the attention of those at risk. This blog is about the real problem of noise (mixed messages) and how it was a real problem even before the tragedy; The noise crowds out properly focused attention to the real casual factors on any site. Take the real risk factor with bark and poor planning of its management.
The government is great at providing relief . But should you trust the government to protect you- I think not. I used to work there right up against the issues. I made a lot of noise about matters of reduced reasoning in relation to risk ( my profession ) and my words were not welcome.

Everybody has an opinion about the cause of tragedies. That's OK provided that incredible noise factor doesn't crowd out the real casual factors and the work of properly trained risk assessors - those who study and observe all their lives. The noise within the new reactionary style of government encourages empire builders to jockey themselves to gain the credibility that is increasingly in question . Its the risk planners who increasingly have been losing their jobs to the firefighters in government.
Noise rather than precision is, is the voice of this governmne on risk.
Imagine an edition of CSI where professionals were forced to focus investigation on phone calls from the public,( like so much media even 10 days after the fire ). Whats dissipation and distraction for the detectives and how the trail and interest would go cold ) If you encourage political expediency in risk management- you cultivate quickfix and firefighting rather than fireplanning . Awefully boring stuff planning !

Take the issue of bark from our native trees . IT MAKES THEM LETHAL . Our native mountain forests shed bark, not leaves ( as our early european settlers discovered) That bark , rather than the leaves and branches, makes living near many of our mountain forests absolutely lethal when there is strong wind and fire. It's bark that creates the main danger from ember attack forward of the fires.
Some houses were protected by Western district cypress (WDC)during the western district fires in 1983 . So its the type of tree that should be at issue, not trees in general. WDC is one tree which itself can burn easily , but its not directly lethal, as many of our native forests are .
Lack of the precision which we expect of professionals is also evident in the dumb and belligerant NVR regulations which for decades now talk about ground fuel removal, when bark itself will fall on fire ban days and create the hazard straight after you have removed it. Dead tree removals too have been a no no and they fall over on such days. Reasonablity has been replaced with regulation.
One lesson is clear : don't rely on the government to protect you - They are not as concerned with providing a competent service as they used to be - the information provided to you is not site specific and competent - its suits those still there to generalise. The dummies have replaced professionals(more here) with person willing and happy to read you the regulations instead of being reasonable with you about real risks in your situation.
Tragic for the environment and those who really care about living with it

Ash Feb 09 : What the Govt don't know about what the people don't know

Telling others about risk is a touchy matter. Do it well, and you are likely to get your hand bitten off . Do it poorly and the person at risk is likely to get more than their hands lost. This blog explores timing as well as content ; volume as well as substance . Cry wolf and you get unecessary deaths . How much crying wolf is going on ? We think we know what other people need to do/know, but do we? The government think they know what we need to know and do, but do they? They know generally, but is generalized warning helpful or dangerous ?

you know the expression by your own 15YO " oh mum, oh dad ..........oh govt"
To get people informed and alert about a real risk you need to capture their interest . If you don't concentrate on real risk you can harden people against listening - Crywolf messages can grow from letting the children take charge ; not watching as well as listening ; not ensuring you have times when you are silent and when you yell ;
as well ,has the recent past been too much focused too much on how WE can help U with the big bad wolf and not enough about how U can deal with the BBwolf ( previous blog) We are not children are we ? We don't look like it but well .. see below .

Government must stop producing "wolf is at the door ads" from the centralised bureau of blurred vision and RELY more on properly trained risk advisers, giving them the power and authority they need to do their job; allowing people to act with wisdom and not blind worship (eg of the Shire planning scheme) Educating people about the things they are interested in ( eg the wolfs nature and weak points: teasing out aims and ambitions which motivate / will activate)Top down approach weaknesses are most obviuos when timing is a critical factor - these times;any times of high risk . (Take 774's interuption of the cricket on Sunday - 774 should not be the fount of all knowledge on days of lower risk; and when truly local is more appropriate; timing again )

As described elsewhere, professional and objective advice from people trained to manage risk has been ignored. Anyone with reasonable experience here will tell you people living constantly in high risk situations tend to ignore risk - The complex psychology of risk management means complex approaches to message management .The deeper paradox ( sorry to have to use that word but it is part of the deeper realities that drive human motivation) the kindergarten assumption by govt leaders that " just warning messages" is enough is the reason why education alone ( the previous blog) is not enough.People do not always listen and thats partly their problem not the govts . Unfortunately govt failure to support PS professionals (cutting deeper and more effectively )culture is another reason they lost many many big picture planning people in the first place -perhaps these people made the job seem too hard for a mere politician?

Ash Feb 09 Educating the people in the war zone

While the Departments argue over who gets what resources and, perhaps, who knows more about fire management? , how about asking the question of whether the people at risk know enough .
Its Not about who knows more about fire management but about whether the people at risk KNOW enough .
For example

"What % of those killed didn't even have the basic expectation that a fire would come at them first from the north and then possibly from the west".

Their choice perhaps but . How many really understood that being on the southern side of a huge fuel load on the northern slopes of Victorias mountains on a TFB was a risk that noone should take?

Ash Feb09 : Justify why you should stay there

If you choose to be against the bush on such days as Black saturday , why should someone risk their lives trying to drive to you or protect your assets?

If we must have a plan - get it approved ! Now there is bureaucracy for you. Soon people would not ask for a permit they would realise there is no safety in your own plan when noone should be against the bush on the northernslopes on a TFB day like saturday .

The phone call ( the big news from esplin yesterday ) may be helpful but because time is short and the caller can't see or respond well, it should not be relied on .
Govt must use warning systems that are either prepartory OR immediate, responsive and reliable -like all types of radioin particular

Ash Feb 09 Fuel reduction

DSE should have been justifying where grazing, mowing and removal or lopping of Native vegetation should require a permit---- not the other way around. ( Since NVR came in , its just been a hamfisted moving feast of regulations aimed at increased review and decreased access ; a huge body of bush picnic that's now large enough to confuse a queens councillor dedicated to try and understand it )
Shires have finally listed (Oct 2008 ) some exemptions from the myriad of native vegetation clauses that have for a decade confused most planners , let alone any poor citizen who tries to read them "40cm girth 1.5 metres high ".

Time to redress the imbalance - let the people know what their rights are to make decisions. Make it clear to a confused and frightened public ( "you /we need a permit, ....tell us what you want to do inwriting and we will tell you whether we approve it .... so we did nothing") For over a decade now none could tell you when and where slashing, mowing, grazing,lopping and fence clearing could be carried out.

Instead of spending all their time viewing permit applications from all over the place , the NEW exemptions should be publicized and made clear ; Ever sinve NVR came there was this confusion and implied permitable action stuff; seeking to gain the power to control "to the maximum extent" possible ; Rural people felt they had to get a permit for everything and not cut anything down . Real managers of roadsides, boundaries and assets need desperately to regain the sense of reasonable control they used to have and need to operate with common sense.

How far can you trim branches hanging over your fence,or your assets- it was clear in the city : how come it wasn't in the country for so long ? Direct publications are now needed to redress decades of determined resistance and rural confusion about " what we are supposed/allowed to do "
The balance of responsibility is still all wrong. It should be up to DSE/Shires to justify why they let flora and fauna protection "concerns" override Fire protection and adjacent land managers responsibility for using common sense .
And still more : whose responsible for the confusion - DSE , or the Shires or the government who let this NVR legislation and the duplication of "agencies responsible" result in an ever moving feast.

Ash Feb 09 More planning, less fire fighting

More radio , training services and less Elvis

What do you think? All governments have a difficult choice when it comes to expenditure on risk management . Too many concentrate on solving problems as they arise --the rushing in approach
The biggest burden to the budget over the last few years must be Elvis and his mates .Looks impressive but where else should the money be spent. What do you think ?- briefly .

Ash Feb 09 Monocultural madness -

If you warn everybody about everything all the time you warn nobody in real risk. 774 should not be advertising itself as the fount of all knowledge . The lack of prior advertising of specific warnings for local areas and stations dedicated to constant fire updates ( such as Otway FM) did not help.

The messages should have been much clearer and more specific . Previous blog item says it as well. If you live near the bush on the northern slopes you shouldn't stay there on certain days. This advice would have been given by forest fire managers in the past . As most CFA is active in open country, the opportunity to defend assets is more of an option in their traditional territory -open rural country .
Why did 774 try to do everything when community stations could have been supported to do what they started and do best - run dedicated warning services.

What do you think ?

Ash Feb09 : The ads were wrong. The governments risk advisory mechanism is faulty .

The notion that you can stay near bush when you live on the northern slopes is complete rubbish, so why did both agnecies support the namby pamby ADS to " have your own plan" to save yourself. Confusion created by a forced sense of unity about how to manage risks . As if all risk is the same everywhere. They talk diversity but have no idea how to maintain it as an effective force in governing.
Noone is safe living on the northern slopes near the bush when the northerlies are up , so even if people had their fire plans approved ( a step in right direction )no play and stay plan should be allowed to provide the level of false confidence that plans provided in that situation in those high risk areas. The ads are faulty and give no adequate warning.
What do you think ? why wasn't good advice given more clearly . Do you have a good link with more info ?

Ash Feb 09 : DSE and CFA - Can they work better together?

With 2 agencies fighting over the same territory, how can one of them be totally responsible ? Who should do you believe and what warnings are appropriate in the different territories .Is really good advice being lost in attempt to create consensus . Is consensus risking diversity and responsibility? The CFA favor the plan ( because most farms can reduce fuel loads ) while DSE used to favor evacuation ( because noone can manage fuel loads near forest)

Surely the washed out warnings in the ads are an example of what happens when noone is really in charge - or worse the childrenincharge ?
If the government won't talk about this glaring disunity and pretence of monoculture, the people will.

Give the agencies the right to advise locally and specifically . Why is 774 and the ABC now "the only Emergency station". Local community FM stations should be advertised and supported to do it as well. After all , stations like OtwayFM ( very high fire zone) provided uninterupted updates on local fires long before the ABC took the badge and tried to do it all . Diversity and dedication in the right place at the right time. What do you think?

Ash Feb 09 : Implementing your own ideas- a recipe for disaster

Time the B government ditched the children in charge ;those who still fall for "me first" approach to management in health care .
Time the post modern dummies who advocate "your birth plan" and "your fire plan"' got the flick . Time the parliament asked agin whether it is ACTUALLY into planning or fire fighting. Professional health care advice needs to be dominant in the discusssion - otherwise we WILL have again what we had this week : the greatest fire disaster ever. The advice from previous fire chiefs was not taken and the damage was bigger that it could have been because of the B governments failure to respect professional and experienced advice.

This week: 181 dead , over 1000 homes lost .
Disasters will happen, and governments can't always prevent them . However, the size of the disaster demonstrates just how effective governments are in prevention and planning ; doing the job they are supposed to do ( The summary stuff is written on the floor of the building). Its not really about fire firefighting, but fire planning. The current Victorian government has no excuse - Fire after fire after fire.
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