Places of last resort

Some people find it so hard to make decisions,  they don't make them .

Those in charge on Feb 09 NOT in charge:

NEWS Emergenecy services not ready - Christine Nixon thinks she can leave the building ! ( Revelation at Royal commission this week). Noone who has ever worked a bushfire would accept it for the person in her position ! SHE'S OUTA THERE WHEN SHE CAN'T LEAVE TILL THOSE AT RISK ARE OUTA THERE .

For another revelation - (yet,  to come we trust) ( A word that should have been in pace for last fire season but wasn't !!) The word Evacuation has been banned-- time the embargo was lifted and those hiding behind their incompetence named ;
This needs to be said juts in case the commission haven't the courage to say so - the word should never ever have been banned and all the other confusing messages should have been .The only place to be when a very high fire risk is on is,    outa there ---and who would supervise that ?

Now 14 months since the greatest natural disaster in Australasia history and Brumbys search for th whole truth and nothing but the nice truth ( errors of judgement ) continues - pity about the bad modeling thats rife in his entourage.
Even The interim recommendations didn't include evacuation as an option and the word appears to have been banned . The emergency services are liable because the only place to be when a very high fire risk is on is outa there . yOU HEARd IT FIRST ON fORESTANDFIRE

The missing Fire Plans

Everybody is talking about fireplans but where are they ? Went looking for some examples on Google Images, but could find few . So here's one I prepared earlier for a worksite in the bush . Send me an email if you want to know more , or do you own HERE

Bushfire Royal commission recs

While the Commission fails to get the disaster paradigm of February Fires into perspective, many of the interim recommendations are welcome ( see below )eg Support strongly1-4,16,17,38,39,44.
Point is, if the Commission can't say that "we have a problem because we are not allowed to say to people "you are living in an impossible risk situation" we will still have the problem. What do you expect the police to do now that the emergency commisioner esplin has ruled out of order any discussion on what he didn't organise ?
That a BIG paradigm problem remains is also evident in the very patchwork and very weak nature of the recommendations noted in the warning chapters; the unnecessary lack of clarity and confusion over what constitutes “good information”.Such confusion is totally uneccesary !
The failure of the commission to tackle intractable Command and control sensibilities up the line could be addressed by Subpoena -ing more outsiders to talk to practical realities. Otherwise, more of the same "bottleneck" problems for incident controllers can be expected .
The commission need to focus much more clearly on what constitutes good information (Far more important than warning issue )
For example, just the knowledge of local fire origins and changing local wind MUST be broadcast on Radio - this is not expensive or difficult if someone is authorised to do it ( rather than rely on the controller SEE BELOW ). Remember if you wait for "the situation people" to publish ALL the details of fire "where and where its headed to " it can take too long .Besides let the people make their own decisions 4:61:4;62. on the basis of limited but verifiable info - leave the speculation to later or the truly local .
The web , for example is seen in the report as a monitoring mechanism ( a good one -has spatial advantage over radio but not as reliable or accountable or nearly as quick as a dedicated radio service in your area on TFB days ) Loss of mains power is normal and websites reliance on confirmed “situation “reports means it will always be slow. Info on local wind changes is also critical to good information ( but not easy to give out) and some other source can feed the dedicated radio reporter who should be set up in your area ( Recommendation 26 under 4:23 in warnings report )
Alternatively the high cost benefit of broadcast fire reports is not highlighted even though local radios can be heard for all those on relocation and with external information sources- wind changes (BOM site). When you warn is another matter.
( RADIO reports: they can be got immediately in car ,shelter through all radio mediums esp if no other reports are broadcast on a loop without interruption )
My suggestions for change for this season (for a start) - make for some improvement easily and effectively.
1. Make sure Fire controllers authorise the "immediate" publication of fire locations on days of TFB .( a report issued to media within 15 minutes of site being located )
2. Make sure RA review whether "situation reports" are processed fast enough with a view to making sure something goes out within 15 minutes.
3. RA must be given authority/ responsibility to issue media reports on a very frequent basis and not focused so much on the web / or any other medium as the answer.
4. Legislate if necessary to make sure one truly local radio broadcaster or broadcasters are required to run fulltime reports if there is a fire or extensive smoke on days of TFB. Recommendation 26 under 4:23 in warnings report see comments below on the role of community radio-esp as a practical and reliable dedicated service provider. Tell the public about all the options for them and not just the ABC !!!!
5. Give the police and other RA’s the authority to give (without fear or favour independent )evacuation advice – both early (Rec 15) and late

All we want is common sense

Some very welcome positive responses from the Commision, Today . Today's announcements regarding improved approaches to risk management seem to be based on sound reflection on what happened on Black Saturday and a recognition of some critical but lying dormant institutional weaknesses identified below .
All we want is common sense and les control freaks . Most welcome is the challenge to make sure information is not lost, but is properly shared ( previous posts) The heirachy of information dissemination must be disassembled to make sure people share info rather than have to wait till its " properly authorized"-- whoever says what there will be risks so its imperative that governemnets don't just listen to lawyers and those who clone them .
.....
The failure to understand the sound basis for authority in risk management goes to the heart of the B government's highly distracted, wasteful and reactionary approaches to it across a wide range of agencies( another matter)
Welcome news

Not about the number of warnings

But the nature of them.
Mr Russell Rees has been reported in the Media as claimimg that there were "enough warnings" .
It would be a double tragedy ,if after losing so many people because we are not warning them well , if the inquiry itself gets lost in some of the excuses; in identifying the wolf warriors, but not when, and to where, its best to call them.
One of risks for the commission is to not recognise the way to be effective with warnings . Another risk is to miss the opportunity to see what proceedures inside bureaus can and should be changed ; for example,what needs to be done to resist excuses for the heavy one way traffic into the congestion riddled incident control systems -ICC's.

On the other hand, noone who has ever been involved with Bushfire information provision would expect things not to go wrong . And the huge number of incidents on Black saturday was far bigger than either CFA or DSE could cope with easily; Things had to go wrong and it would not matter for some - "how many warnings"!

This note is not to condemn anyone; rather to remind the press that things will go wrong. To target Rees or Waller is really to miss the point - they and those around them have very difficult and responsible jobs . The watershed question is whether the structures serve the situation and in what ways can they be reformed to do it better. The classic no solution risk is "revolution" and blame because its easy and looks more " effective" . The stockade could come of this looking pretty good if they find someone to blame inside the bureaubrats . Neither the stockade nor the bureaubrats are totally responsible here.

The officers on duty on those days are under huge pressure to make decisions and it doesn't matter how brilliant or capable they are - things will still go wrong !
As Rees has rightly said - the resources were overtaxed and the press need to be very careful they let the inquiry focus on the wolf properly - not the wolves generally. One thing that needs to go much better than it used to ,is to insist that fire tower reports are not tied up in the incident control system. Unless things have changed a lot , radio stations wait for too long for basic info on location.
The point is, the focus has been too much centred around the ICC - should the responsibility for information provision rest with the growing incident control systems entirely? In what ways can the information be deseminated sharing the risk, rather than take it all to the top . Things will still go wrong, but at least the ICC won't be focus of all the power and blame; Why should they be?

If the inquiry fails to recognise, in all the things that are "legitimately" out of control ( like phones , like too many messages , like secondary questions, like deaths because of poor choices , like deaf audiences, like busy controllers, ) on such truly dangerous days, there are several quality control issues on media use listed below that MUST be dealt with before the next TFB days .

One area that needs reform is in the nature of warnings - Warning is not just about noise , volume and number - its also about effective education and proper use of the team- esp "the ones at the bottom ". Good to see the Commission focusing on the question of control of local information (The locals need to have ownership too - not just the heirachy)
Last summers ads campaigns were offensive to those of who work in risk planning and live near the ground ,because they were always talking about the wolves, but not always helping the people watch out for him in their own backyards.( where are the websites like our own??)The need to warn people on the eastern flank and evacuating them should not be a matter for controversy in Victoria as it has been.
Its not about the number of warnings, but the nature of them.
Another legitimate area of questioning is the situation report system. The incident control and situation report system has been too slow and too restrictive, and was rightly the subject of some good questions yesterday.

Dark greens on a dark ages death wish

Proclaiming nature's so called "moral imperatives" is a highly effective way of keeping an audience for simple minded idealogues. Problem is, in the real world - it doesn't work because no such direct connection exists. Things are little less direct- no one system dominates another .Cooperation is in order.
Real world environmental management requires respect for unity in diversity - something that you have to study in detail before you can predict its behaviour.

SO Competent clever country practitioners, whom you know , or ought to, know the simplicities of the new religions offend and fail to work. Scientifically- genes don't come anywhere near the determination of all decision making ( take even the latest research on cell control)- Pity our mental health if they do; pity the mental health of our children because they are taught so .

The complex machinery of natural systems is, for humans in particular, the amazing starting structure in which some choices can be made. To say otherwise is to return us to the dark ages. We are living in the dark ages - a cloud over choice empowerment !
So, how seriously stupid are our supposedly practical pollies when they let the simple sermons take root! When public practice and policy on environment practice is a whole of hot air - lots of sound and fury, bluff and bluster , fear and fortune making( consultants and grant getters) - but signifying nothing .
The authority of the sermon givers cannot last when lots of our own people get burned uneccesarily and the conservation cash converters can't deliver.
"Let the forest live..... and the people burn !"If this was the text for yesterday , let it not be the text for tommorrow
Don't laugh - this is what public policy on environment has come to in 2009 ?
Hasn't this playing up to the minors made the government ineffective and incompetent ? Clearly the influence of the dark greens has been huge .
The dark greens actions in meddling in things they don't fully understand has been threatening our commoncensus politics for decades ( giving way to green senators and coalition left partners)- to the extent that many are unaware that its their half baked ideas and actions that create the " lets sit in the danger zone, doing whats right in the Shire's/ gods/ who knows whose eyes, and hope for the best attitude" that presumably got many people killed in February.
Dark greens ( assumming most people are green and rightly so ) don't respect their territory - ie what they really know and what production ecologists know ( how to fit houses into the bush) No - D greens use their position in the centre to force changes to make nature ( whatever that chooses itself to be ) more important than man. Now that stupidity has filtered down to local government level, its stupidity is obvious - but we are a compliant lot.
The real question for the resolution and protection of our democracy and effective governmnet is

Do we now believe, after giving in to their talk for decades ( as we have acted in parliament) , that nature is more important than people?

The warnings been there for decades .And don't believe you can sit and let the nonsense talk continue without effect . More from 2005
Excerpt source Sarapatna

Environmental regulation driven by Green politics threatens the rule of law and property rights. The flawed processes by which environmental policies are determined and enforced not only subvert constitutional principles but also admit bad science.

Copyright EA