Dark greens on a dark ages death wish

Proclaiming nature's so called "moral imperatives" is a highly effective way of keeping an audience for simple minded idealogues. Problem is, in the real world - it doesn't work because no such direct connection exists. Things are little less direct- no one system dominates another .Cooperation is in order.
Real world environmental management requires respect for unity in diversity - something that you have to study in detail before you can predict its behaviour.

SO Competent clever country practitioners, whom you know , or ought to, know the simplicities of the new religions offend and fail to work. Scientifically- genes don't come anywhere near the determination of all decision making ( take even the latest research on cell control)- Pity our mental health if they do; pity the mental health of our children because they are taught so .

The complex machinery of natural systems is, for humans in particular, the amazing starting structure in which some choices can be made. To say otherwise is to return us to the dark ages. We are living in the dark ages - a cloud over choice empowerment !
So, how seriously stupid are our supposedly practical pollies when they let the simple sermons take root! When public practice and policy on environment practice is a whole of hot air - lots of sound and fury, bluff and bluster , fear and fortune making( consultants and grant getters) - but signifying nothing .
The authority of the sermon givers cannot last when lots of our own people get burned uneccesarily and the conservation cash converters can't deliver.
"Let the forest live..... and the people burn !"If this was the text for yesterday , let it not be the text for tommorrow
Don't laugh - this is what public policy on environment has come to in 2009 ?
Hasn't this playing up to the minors made the government ineffective and incompetent ? Clearly the influence of the dark greens has been huge .
The dark greens actions in meddling in things they don't fully understand has been threatening our commoncensus politics for decades ( giving way to green senators and coalition left partners)- to the extent that many are unaware that its their half baked ideas and actions that create the " lets sit in the danger zone, doing whats right in the Shire's/ gods/ who knows whose eyes, and hope for the best attitude" that presumably got many people killed in February.
Dark greens ( assumming most people are green and rightly so ) don't respect their territory - ie what they really know and what production ecologists know ( how to fit houses into the bush) No - D greens use their position in the centre to force changes to make nature ( whatever that chooses itself to be ) more important than man. Now that stupidity has filtered down to local government level, its stupidity is obvious - but we are a compliant lot.
The real question for the resolution and protection of our democracy and effective governmnet is

Do we now believe, after giving in to their talk for decades ( as we have acted in parliament) , that nature is more important than people?

The warnings been there for decades .And don't believe you can sit and let the nonsense talk continue without effect . More from 2005
Excerpt source Sarapatna

Environmental regulation driven by Green politics threatens the rule of law and property rights. The flawed processes by which environmental policies are determined and enforced not only subvert constitutional principles but also admit bad science.

Copyright EA

Northern, Southern , Eastern ; Know what slopes you are on

Know what slopes you are on -every person living in rural Victoria should know just where they are ; because the winds and land are predictable features to plan with .see here

Bark an up the wrong tree

How did so many people lose their lives on Feb 7th? Clearly the warnings about the danger were totally inadequate !
If you are going to be effective in warning people, you have to aim very clearly at the real and current high risk factors. Miss the target even slightly , and you lose the attention of those at risk. This blog is about the real problem of noise (mixed messages) and how it was a real problem even before the tragedy; The noise crowds out properly focused attention to the real casual factors on any site. Take the real risk factor with bark and poor planning of its management.
The government is great at providing relief . But should you trust the government to protect you- I think not. I used to work there right up against the issues. I made a lot of noise about matters of reduced reasoning in relation to risk ( my profession ) and my words were not welcome.

Everybody has an opinion about the cause of tragedies. That's OK provided that incredible noise factor doesn't crowd out the real casual factors and the work of properly trained risk assessors - those who study and observe all their lives. The noise within the new reactionary style of government encourages empire builders to jockey themselves to gain the credibility that is increasingly in question . Its the risk planners who increasingly have been losing their jobs to the firefighters in government.
Noise rather than precision is, is the voice of this governmne on risk.
Imagine an edition of CSI where professionals were forced to focus investigation on phone calls from the public,( like so much media even 10 days after the fire ). Whats dissipation and distraction for the detectives and how the trail and interest would go cold ) If you encourage political expediency in risk management- you cultivate quickfix and firefighting rather than fireplanning . Awefully boring stuff planning !

Take the issue of bark from our native trees . IT MAKES THEM LETHAL . Our native mountain forests shed bark, not leaves ( as our early european settlers discovered) That bark , rather than the leaves and branches, makes living near many of our mountain forests absolutely lethal when there is strong wind and fire. It's bark that creates the main danger from ember attack forward of the fires.
Some houses were protected by Western district cypress (WDC)during the western district fires in 1983 . So its the type of tree that should be at issue, not trees in general. WDC is one tree which itself can burn easily , but its not directly lethal, as many of our native forests are .
Lack of the precision which we expect of professionals is also evident in the dumb and belligerant NVR regulations which for decades now talk about ground fuel removal, when bark itself will fall on fire ban days and create the hazard straight after you have removed it. Dead tree removals too have been a no no and they fall over on such days. Reasonablity has been replaced with regulation.
One lesson is clear : don't rely on the government to protect you - They are not as concerned with providing a competent service as they used to be - the information provided to you is not site specific and competent - its suits those still there to generalise. The dummies have replaced professionals(more here) with person willing and happy to read you the regulations instead of being reasonable with you about real risks in your situation.
Tragic for the environment and those who really care about living with it

Ash Feb 09 : What the Govt don't know about what the people don't know

Telling others about risk is a touchy matter. Do it well, and you are likely to get your hand bitten off . Do it poorly and the person at risk is likely to get more than their hands lost. This blog explores timing as well as content ; volume as well as substance . Cry wolf and you get unecessary deaths . How much crying wolf is going on ? We think we know what other people need to do/know, but do we? The government think they know what we need to know and do, but do they? They know generally, but is generalized warning helpful or dangerous ?

you know the expression by your own 15YO " oh mum, oh dad ..........oh govt"
To get people informed and alert about a real risk you need to capture their interest . If you don't concentrate on real risk you can harden people against listening - Crywolf messages can grow from letting the children take charge ; not watching as well as listening ; not ensuring you have times when you are silent and when you yell ;
as well ,has the recent past been too much focused too much on how WE can help U with the big bad wolf and not enough about how U can deal with the BBwolf ( previous blog) We are not children are we ? We don't look like it but well .. see below .

Government must stop producing "wolf is at the door ads" from the centralised bureau of blurred vision and RELY more on properly trained risk advisers, giving them the power and authority they need to do their job; allowing people to act with wisdom and not blind worship (eg of the Shire planning scheme) Educating people about the things they are interested in ( eg the wolfs nature and weak points: teasing out aims and ambitions which motivate / will activate)Top down approach weaknesses are most obviuos when timing is a critical factor - these times;any times of high risk . (Take 774's interuption of the cricket on Sunday - 774 should not be the fount of all knowledge on days of lower risk; and when truly local is more appropriate; timing again )

As described elsewhere, professional and objective advice from people trained to manage risk has been ignored. Anyone with reasonable experience here will tell you people living constantly in high risk situations tend to ignore risk - The complex psychology of risk management means complex approaches to message management .The deeper paradox ( sorry to have to use that word but it is part of the deeper realities that drive human motivation) the kindergarten assumption by govt leaders that " just warning messages" is enough is the reason why education alone ( the previous blog) is not enough.People do not always listen and thats partly their problem not the govts . Unfortunately govt failure to support PS professionals (cutting deeper and more effectively )culture is another reason they lost many many big picture planning people in the first place -perhaps these people made the job seem too hard for a mere politician?

Ash Feb 09 Educating the people in the war zone

While the Departments argue over who gets what resources and, perhaps, who knows more about fire management? , how about asking the question of whether the people at risk know enough .
Its Not about who knows more about fire management but about whether the people at risk KNOW enough .
For example

"What % of those killed didn't even have the basic expectation that a fire would come at them first from the north and then possibly from the west".

Their choice perhaps but . How many really understood that being on the southern side of a huge fuel load on the northern slopes of Victorias mountains on a TFB was a risk that noone should take?

Ash Feb09 : Justify why you should stay there

If you choose to be against the bush on such days as Black saturday , why should someone risk their lives trying to drive to you or protect your assets?

If we must have a plan - get it approved ! Now there is bureaucracy for you. Soon people would not ask for a permit they would realise there is no safety in your own plan when noone should be against the bush on the northernslopes on a TFB day like saturday .

The phone call ( the big news from esplin yesterday ) may be helpful but because time is short and the caller can't see or respond well, it should not be relied on .
Govt must use warning systems that are either prepartory OR immediate, responsive and reliable -like all types of radioin particular

Ash Feb 09 Fuel reduction

DSE should have been justifying where grazing, mowing and removal or lopping of Native vegetation should require a permit---- not the other way around. ( Since NVR came in , its just been a hamfisted moving feast of regulations aimed at increased review and decreased access ; a huge body of bush picnic that's now large enough to confuse a queens councillor dedicated to try and understand it )
Shires have finally listed (Oct 2008 ) some exemptions from the myriad of native vegetation clauses that have for a decade confused most planners , let alone any poor citizen who tries to read them "40cm girth 1.5 metres high ".

Time to redress the imbalance - let the people know what their rights are to make decisions. Make it clear to a confused and frightened public ( "you /we need a permit, ....tell us what you want to do inwriting and we will tell you whether we approve it .... so we did nothing") For over a decade now none could tell you when and where slashing, mowing, grazing,lopping and fence clearing could be carried out.

Instead of spending all their time viewing permit applications from all over the place , the NEW exemptions should be publicized and made clear ; Ever sinve NVR came there was this confusion and implied permitable action stuff; seeking to gain the power to control "to the maximum extent" possible ; Rural people felt they had to get a permit for everything and not cut anything down . Real managers of roadsides, boundaries and assets need desperately to regain the sense of reasonable control they used to have and need to operate with common sense.

How far can you trim branches hanging over your fence,or your assets- it was clear in the city : how come it wasn't in the country for so long ? Direct publications are now needed to redress decades of determined resistance and rural confusion about " what we are supposed/allowed to do "
The balance of responsibility is still all wrong. It should be up to DSE/Shires to justify why they let flora and fauna protection "concerns" override Fire protection and adjacent land managers responsibility for using common sense .
And still more : whose responsible for the confusion - DSE , or the Shires or the government who let this NVR legislation and the duplication of "agencies responsible" result in an ever moving feast.

Ash Feb 09 More planning, less fire fighting

More radio , training services and less Elvis

What do you think? All governments have a difficult choice when it comes to expenditure on risk management . Too many concentrate on solving problems as they arise --the rushing in approach
The biggest burden to the budget over the last few years must be Elvis and his mates .Looks impressive but where else should the money be spent. What do you think ?- briefly .

Ash Feb 09 Monocultural madness -

If you warn everybody about everything all the time you warn nobody in real risk. 774 should not be advertising itself as the fount of all knowledge . The lack of prior advertising of specific warnings for local areas and stations dedicated to constant fire updates ( such as Otway FM) did not help.

The messages should have been much clearer and more specific . Previous blog item says it as well. If you live near the bush on the northern slopes you shouldn't stay there on certain days. This advice would have been given by forest fire managers in the past . As most CFA is active in open country, the opportunity to defend assets is more of an option in their traditional territory -open rural country .
Why did 774 try to do everything when community stations could have been supported to do what they started and do best - run dedicated warning services.

What do you think ?

Ash Feb09 : The ads were wrong. The governments risk advisory mechanism is faulty .

The notion that you can stay near bush when you live on the northern slopes is complete rubbish, so why did both agnecies support the namby pamby ADS to " have your own plan" to save yourself. Confusion created by a forced sense of unity about how to manage risks . As if all risk is the same everywhere. They talk diversity but have no idea how to maintain it as an effective force in governing.
Noone is safe living on the northern slopes near the bush when the northerlies are up , so even if people had their fire plans approved ( a step in right direction )no play and stay plan should be allowed to provide the level of false confidence that plans provided in that situation in those high risk areas. The ads are faulty and give no adequate warning.
What do you think ? why wasn't good advice given more clearly . Do you have a good link with more info ?

Ash Feb 09 : DSE and CFA - Can they work better together?

With 2 agencies fighting over the same territory, how can one of them be totally responsible ? Who should do you believe and what warnings are appropriate in the different territories .Is really good advice being lost in attempt to create consensus . Is consensus risking diversity and responsibility? The CFA favor the plan ( because most farms can reduce fuel loads ) while DSE used to favor evacuation ( because noone can manage fuel loads near forest)

Surely the washed out warnings in the ads are an example of what happens when noone is really in charge - or worse the childrenincharge ?
If the government won't talk about this glaring disunity and pretence of monoculture, the people will.

Give the agencies the right to advise locally and specifically . Why is 774 and the ABC now "the only Emergency station". Local community FM stations should be advertised and supported to do it as well. After all , stations like OtwayFM ( very high fire zone) provided uninterupted updates on local fires long before the ABC took the badge and tried to do it all . Diversity and dedication in the right place at the right time. What do you think?

Ash Feb 09 : Implementing your own ideas- a recipe for disaster

Time the B government ditched the children in charge ;those who still fall for "me first" approach to management in health care .
Time the post modern dummies who advocate "your birth plan" and "your fire plan"' got the flick . Time the parliament asked agin whether it is ACTUALLY into planning or fire fighting. Professional health care advice needs to be dominant in the discusssion - otherwise we WILL have again what we had this week : the greatest fire disaster ever. The advice from previous fire chiefs was not taken and the damage was bigger that it could have been because of the B governments failure to respect professional and experienced advice.

This week: 181 dead , over 1000 homes lost .
Disasters will happen, and governments can't always prevent them . However, the size of the disaster demonstrates just how effective governments are in prevention and planning ; doing the job they are supposed to do ( The summary stuff is written on the floor of the building). Its not really about fire firefighting, but fire planning. The current Victorian government has no excuse - Fire after fire after fire.
.

Firefighting- defence or attack mode?

Like all health advocates we support ,to a man, the need for massive firefighting effort when lives are at risk .
But like all health profesionals, we mustn't allow the present crisis to prevent us from preventing the next one .
Will the massive expenditure on attempted fire control and the technological wizardry of the new milleneum prevent something bigger than 1939 from happening? Will the goverenmnets huge resources for planning and doing long term land use planning be diverted and squandered on reactionary and ineffective windowdressing. Playing around on the boundaries of a problem made too big to "solve"? . Will firefighting and shallow reactionary stuff be the enduring symbol of the Bracks legacy; Conflagration rather than conservation .natural resource non management rather than natural resource management. Its been Government by defence rather than government by attack. rather brings the word sustainability into disrepute?

Will, for example the huge expenditure on fire management by Mr Thwaites in 2006 make up for the damage done by his carelessly closing down forests for multiple use and management? How much money will be spent for the priveleged few land managers who remain like blatant heretics to behave in ways which, he, Mr Thwaites has declared ' no longer acceptable". There are some wild land advocates who would say " let it all burn - that's the natural imperative " I wonder if Mr thwaites or Ms carbines is influenced by their simple ideological modelling?
While it may suit some to sell utopian dreams, the best way to have our cakes and eat them too is to allow for biodiversity .That 's not what the simple idealogues can handle .After all they don't study the subject to show themeslees approved leaders in the field . Yet , if we did what the wild ones wanted most of the plantation timbers and your superannuation would go up in smoke too - and more often than is naturally good for any one element of the ecosystem. !Posted Dec
16th 2006

When will this forest burn, and what will grow after it does ? 

I will find the 1939 maps and put it up > for now . this is our locality  

From Tony Sutcliffe ( Canberra Times)
Eminent jurist, Allan Myers QC summed up the situation with his scathing
review of the Victorian Inquiry: "the terms of reference for the Esplin
Inquiry were deficient, being too vague, generalized and unfocussed and, at
the same time too narrow.... Matters which the terms of reference ought to
have addressed include land use practices of Parks Victoria, forest
husbandry practices in Victorian State forests and specific steps which
could have been taken to control and extinguish the fires but which were
not taken, or not taken in a timely manner".

ACT Coroner Maria Doogan plainly understands this. Consequently she finds
herself in the siights of a cartel of State and Territory Government
environmental and fire agencies.

The commonality of their outlooks, history and practices means that Doogan
was effectively inquiring ito the lot of them. Her inquiry would uncover
precisely how these fires were allowed to destroy hundreds of homes,
destroy thousands of hectares of trees and cremate thousands of native
animals. She would uncover under-resourcing of national parks and the
dysfuntionality of fire services which spurn of fire service which spurn
the value of local volunteer expertise. She would find out why our fellow
human beings were allowed to die.

Equally Doogan would discover why the ACT finds itself at the epicentre of
NSW and Victorias incompetence. Such inquiries are what underpins the
preservation of social democracy. We should remember it is not just high
profile watchdogs like Doogan who are under the hammer. The political
intimidation extends to the most fundamental level of our community.

When NSW and ACT volunteer firefighters gathered to protest at the Supreme
Cour last week, they had received almost identical warning from their fire
services not to wear uniforms. NSW volunteer firefighter Bruce Noble stood
defiantly and wore his uniform, because volunteer fire fighting is an
integral part of country Australian's identity. "The ACT Coroner should be
allowed to finish her job immediately and let the truth be told" insists Noble.

The same patronising "we know best" attitude was echoed earlier in
Victoria, when a fire fighter was put on charges for publicising the
notorious inflammability of Victoria's fibreglass firetankers. Such
volunteers are paying the cost of the environment and fire agencies
becoming hopelessly entwined with their political masters' fortunes.

Don't just watch the leaders. The entire political left is complicit in the
cover up. If conservative governments had created the bush fire
incompetence, then the Greens and their allies would be incandescent with
rage. Instead their cosy relationships with the ALP leave them sitting on
their hands - muted, neutered and obsolete.

The Stanhope Government has risked all, including its fundamental
credibility, in a hopeless quest to diminish the standing of Doogan. Its
allies can't believe their luck.

I don't know why Canberra and feds are so fussed about having big expensive enquiries into Bushfires out of control.
According to emminent Wentworth's group (Flannery) and Bob Brown in the past weeks the thing to focus on is "global warming"( like perths water supply etc etc ) . No excuses mate--- thats what we should blame
What the people are not sure about though, like the people in "the day after tommorow" is whether doomsday is due to the ozone layer or Co2 . Does anyone care about the details ? Its going up!!!! see "natural cycles" for comfort?

A meeting involving people prememinent in the fields of applied botany and land management addressed a country audience last week to encourage them to continue as they knew what they were talkingabout .
That this meeting express its great dissatisfaction with the preemphory and unscientific discussion as presented by the Esplin Inquiry.

(4) That a small delegation led by Athol Hodgson is granted an urgent meeting with Minister John Thwaits to discuss the enormous damage to the environment; why it happened and what we must do in the future to stop it happening again.

(5) A motion to call upon the Coroner to inquire into the 2003 bushfires and make real recommendations on how the bush can be managed in the future.

(6) That the Victorian Government actively maintains and promotes Alpine Grazing in both forests and parks to
(a) assist in fuel reduction management
(b) for the benefit of maintaining local knowledge.

Been a lot of burning this year , because the government is learning .Fair way to go before they could really do what integrated planners used to do - look after the environmnet . Pity all this learning and burning is at the publics expense and a few wannabe s whims >

Parliament supports a complete downgrading of the old LCC / VEAC independance - its independance is not constitutionally secure after the Otways enquiry set terms of reference that restrict its ability to recommend management diversity !
You wouldn't think these big picture conservationists ( so named) would stymy the independance of the scientific tribunal would you? "Can't answer that - not in our terms of reference" the scientists from VEAC have said.

Beat the blinkered bookkeepers
How do we bridge the gap created between professionals by blinkered accountants with a careless competition theme?.
How about calling ourselves production ecologists The problem is not the professionals - its those who would seek to manage them on a two column ledger. Help bridge the gap between those who see themselves working in one or other camp when their real need is to do both-- and for us to work together.
Beat the blinkered bookkeepers and build one of the most important professions on the globe . Not one of us can afford to wait for accountants to get the message about the lack of lateral thinking about these critical conservation issues .
http://productionecologists.blogspot.com